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Predictions for the “new normal” are a dime a dozen. A few weeks ago, they were nothing but hypotheses. Now as states reopen, we’re getting a preview of what the future might look like. But, it’s not yet clear.
Official policy is one thing, it changes instantly. Societal norms and individual tolerances are another, adjusting over time. For example, outdoor dining is available in 44 of 50 states. Only 40% of respondents have patronized a restaurant.
At one point, I described how VCs approach industries affected by COVID. One prevailing question was, “How do we know if this uptick/downturn is permanent? How long does it last?”
Physics gives us the answer.
(noun) The resistance that one surface or object encounters when moving over another.
(noun) Conflict or animosity caused by a clash of wills, temperaments, or opinions.
COVID created a lot of friction and continues to do so. Look no further than teachers and parents launching school-from-home. It was not a smooth transition.
In physics, the force of friction resists another force pushing against an object:
If the surface is rough or sticky, friction is high. If the object is big and heavy, friction high. When friction is high, there is a lot of resistance to change.
We should look at stickiness and bigness to explain how we reacted to COVID pressures. We can look at them to understand which adaptations and changes are lasting.
Bigger things are harder to move. There’s more friction creating resistance.
❕For example: Remote work.
My firm of 11 transitioned quickly. A few of us didn’t come in one day, then the rest stayed home the next.
My fiance’s firm of 100–200x that first came up with a work remote plan, tested that plan in shifts, assessed where the system faltered, fixed those issues, then decided to work remotely. How with firm size determine when (or if) we go back to the office?
❔ To consider: Small entities will move first and give us a glimpse of what the larger entities will eventually do. (Small may also apply to the homogeneity of a group.) Leading indicators include:
The higher a surface’s “coefficient of friction” is, the stickier that surface or system is. Some environments are stickier than others.
It’s much easier to fire a 1099'd gig worker than a contractor operating under an SOW. It’s most difficult to fire an employee.
❕For example: Physical health.
Over 50% of those surveyed noted they are exercising more in quarantine. 2/3rds of those people said its because they have more time! Getting rid of commutes lowered a lot of the friction to exercise. Will those people continue to exercise at the same level once we start commuting again?
We see this again in grocery. A quarter of respondents started grocery delivery during COVID. The added requirements for shopping (masks, waiting in line, overcoming discomfort) raised friction associated with shopping. Once these barriers disappear, will grocery delivery volume continue?
❔ To consider: Friction works both ways. Many times, when there is resistance to adopt an initiative, there is later resistance to give it up! We should think about where that resistance is coming from to understand how permanent it is:
The coefficient of friction is not only dependent on how sticky a surface is. It’s also dependent on if an object is moving or still. It’s easier to keep an object moving than it is to get an object to move in the first place.
It’s very clear to see this when considering virality:
❕Example: Video conferencing.
If you had already started to use Zoom for a few meetings, it was easy to expand its use. If your work was dependent on in-person interaction, it was difficult to adjust to virtual. For example, online teaching or coaching. You had to learn new instruction styles, technology, ways to engage your audience. Once we can be back in person, will we continue to use video infrastructure?
❔ To consider: We entered a virtual world. Where will we come out of it? Think about why we’re using new tools:
When two forces act upon an object, and one of those forces is stronger, it will cause the object to not just move, but accelerate.
If the force of COVID is greater than friction, we will see the acceleration of trends kicked off by COVID.
Friction is a product of how “massive” and complex an object is and how “sticky” the environment. Using this framework, we can anticipate what trends may accelerate with COVID. Additionally, trends that accelerate to a tipping point will be more likely to stick.
On an episode of Pivot, Scott Galloway said something along these lines. COVID is an accelerant of emerging trends. If you look at where your business could be 10 years from now, think about that your business being there next year.
We see this in the rise of home offices, distributed teams, the “rise of the rest.” We see this in the adoption of telemedicine and other therapies. We see this in grocery delivery and retail pickup.
Is COVID enough to push these trends into the new normal?
Originally published at https://jaydimonte.substack.com.